China’s Concerns Over Performance of Kinzhal Missiles in Ukraine Conflict against Patriot Defense System

China’s defense experts closely monitor the performance of Russia’s Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, particularly in encounters with the U.S. Patriot air defense systems used by Ukraine. This assessment is significant for China’s strategic readiness, especially concerning Taiwan, which utilizes the same American-made missile system. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine serves as a testing ground for evaluating Moscow’s military capabilities and its compatibility with Western technology, which has implications for potential conflicts over Taiwan.

Chinese defense experts express mixed impressions of the Kinzhal missiles, as they have not lived up to their expected game-changing potential. The missiles faced interception by the U.S.-supplied Patriot missiles after Ukraine received Patriot launch systems, raising doubts about the effectiveness of Kinzhal missiles in combat.

U.S. support for Ukraine, including providing Patriot batteries and components, significantly enhanced Ukraine’s air defenses against Russian missile attacks. This support has caught the attention of China, as it may impact the balance of power in terms of air defenses and missile technology.

Chinese analyst Yin Jie raises skepticism about the quality of the Kinzhal missiles, highlighting their limitations. The missiles are considered based on 1980s technology, and their ability to perform long-distance gliding in the atmosphere falls short of expectations.

China closely monitors these developments in Ukraine, as they provide valuable analytical data to the U.S. for improving its missile capabilities in the future. This poses challenges for China, as its military relies on several systems based on Russian technology, making these improvements particularly relevant.

The strategic importance of Taiwan adds to China’s concerns. If China perceives a growing gap in air defenses between the U.S. and Russia, it might seek ways to restrict Taiwan’s access to U.S. military technology.

To enhance their lethality and reduce interception probabilities by Patriot systems, China could adapt its missile launch strategies and deploy hypersonic missiles from aircraft like H-6 bombers.

China’s expanding hypersonic missile arsenal is informed by the knowledge gained from observing the U.S.’s strengths and weaknesses in modern warfare. This contributes to China’s strategic planning and its superiority in hypersonic weapons research and development compared to the U.S.

While the Patriot system is effective, it has limitations in terms of range and firing altitude. It may struggle to intercept missiles like China’s Dongfeng-17, which operates at different altitudes and trajectories. However, the system remains suitable for defending against distant targets, such as U.S. bases in the region.

Despite China’s advancements in hypersonic technology, there are challenges in testing these missiles against moving warships with countermeasures. The reliance on constant satellite updates for the “kill chain” of hypersonic missiles may also be vulnerable to disruption.

China’s assessment of the Kinzhal missiles’ performance against U.S. Patriots provides crucial insights into its strategic preparations, especially concerning Taiwan. As missile technology continues to advance, the balance of power in future conflicts remains under close scrutiny.