Trump Maintains Lead Over Biden and West in Theoretical Race; DeSantis Slips in Primary
According to a recent nationwide survey conducted by Emerson College, former President Donald Trump continues to hold the lead in a hypothetical three-way race for the presidency. The poll suggests that 42 percent of registered voters would choose Trump, putting him slightly ahead of President Joe Biden, who garnered 41 percent of the vote. Green Party candidate Cornell West received five percent support, while thirteen percent of respondents remained undecided.
In a head-to-head comparison, Trump maintained a slim advantage of 0.7 percentage points, resulting in a tie when rounded to 44 percent each. This outcome highlights the resilience of Trump’s support base in contrast to Biden’s, as pointed out by Spencer Kimball, the Executive Director of Polling at Emerson College. To further illustrate this point, the poll even explored a three-way race that included popular singer Taylor Swift, underscoring the strength of Trump’s base compared to Biden’s.
The survey, which gathered data from 1000 registered voters, including 465 likely Republican primary voters, took place between August 16-17, 2023. It also analyzed the Republican presidential primary race, revealing that Trump maintained a significant advantage with 56 percent support. However, the poll indicated a decline in former Governor Ron DeSantis’s backing since June 20, dropping from 21 percent to ten percent. This decline positioned DeSantis in a tie with entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who experienced an eight-point surge during the same period.
Kimball observed a shift in DeSantis supporters towards Ramaswamy, particularly among Republican voters with postgraduate degrees, a demographic that previously formed part of DeSantis’s base. In contrast, former Vice President Mike Pence and former Governor Chris Christie held three percent support each, while former Governor Nikki Haley and Senator Tim Scott were tied at two percent. Conservative radio host Larry Elder and former Governor Asa Hutchinson rounded out the field with one percent of support each, while over ten percent of respondents remained undecided.
